Fed Meeting

December 14th, 2016|

As widely expected, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Unfortunately for MBS, Fed officials also raised their outlook for the pace of future rate hikes. They now forecast three rate hikes in 2017, one more [...]

Italian Referendum

November 28th, 2016|

 Next Sunday, voters in Italy will decide on a referendum presented by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi which would reform the constitution to speed up lawmaking and to produce a more stable government. If the referendum fails to pass, there is [...]

Yellen’s High-Pressure Economy

October 14th, 2016|

In a speech this afternoon, Fed Chair Yellen surprised investors with a potential new twist on U.S. monetary policy. Yellen put forth the possibility that a “high-pressure economy” may be the best approach to repair the damage done during the [...]

ECB Comments Hurt MBS

October 5th, 2016|

Comments from an unnamed official at the European Central Bank (ECB) caused global bond yields to rise today, including U.S. MBS. The official said that a “consensus” was being formed to gradually taper the ECB’s bond buying program when they [...]

Special Update: Brexit

June 20th, 2016|

This week, a major influence on U.S. mortgage rates will be the “Brexit” vote on Thursday. It is very difficult to predict the effect on the global economy if the UK were to leave the European Union or whether it [...]

Special Update: Fed Rate Hike

December 16th, 2015|

After holding the federal funds rate near zero for seven years, the Fed announced a rate hike of 25 basis points, as widely expected. This was the first rate hike since June 2006. Investors are now asking what the pace [...]

Special Update: Fed Meeting

September 14th, 2015|

Fed day is coming up on Thursday. The Statement will be released at 2:00 ET, and Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference will follow at around 2:30 ET. Fed members appear divided about raising the federal funds rate at this meeting. [...]

Special Update: Favorable Conditions for Mortgage Rates

March 23rd, 2015|

A stronger than expected Employment report on March 6 pushed mortgage rates up to the highest level of 2015. Since then, however, nearly all of the news, both globally and in the US, has been favorable for mortgage rates. In [...]

Special Update: ECB

January 21st, 2015|

The Wall Street Journal reported that during tomorrow's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting the executive board of the ECB will recommend to the entire 25-member governing council a plan to begin a sovereign bond purchase program. The plan, which would [...]

Special Update: Fed Meeting

December 17th, 2014|

The FOMC statement and Fed Chair Yellen's press conference has created some volatility, but resulted in just a small net reduction in MBS prices. The statement included some change in language but Yellen pointed out that it did not "signify [...]

Special Update: ECB Asset Purchases

December 5th, 2014|

One reason that mortgage rates are so low is the expectation that the ECB will begin to buy sovereign bonds, similar to the recently completed US quantitative easing (QE) program. Economic growth in Europe has stalled, and QE is one [...]

Special Update: Fed Ends Bond Purchases

October 30th, 2014|

The Fed will end its Treasury and MBS purchases next month, but the impact on mortgage rates likely will be small. Over the last few years, these bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, helped push mortgage rates down to the [...]

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