Daily Analysis (All time ET)
| Afternoon Analysis: 07-02-09 02:00pm |
| MBS prices are up +10/32 (FNMA 30-yr 4.5 at 100.07), above the 9:45 et pricing level of +2/32. Today's weaker than expected Employment data helped MBS markets and hurt the stock market. The Dow is down 180 points. For the week, MBS markets gained about +11/32. MBS markets closed early at 2:00 et today and will be closed tomorrow. Treasury auctions may have the greatest impact on mortgage rates next week, with auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It will be a light week for economic data. ISM Services will be released on Monday. The Trade Balance, Import Prices, and Consumer Sentiment will come out on Friday. |
| 07-02-09 02:00pm | 30yr 4.5 | 15yr 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FNMA (Jul) |
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| Morning Analysis: 07-02-09 09:45am |
| MBS prices are up +2/32 (FNMA 30-yr 4.5 at 99.31), which is about 14/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Favorable repricing took place yesterday. The 30-yr fixed FNMA required net yield (60 day) is now at 5.07%, from 5.11% yesterday. It has been a volatile morning, and early investors may have priced at higher levels. MBS markets began the day with modest losses, and rose to a high of +7/32 following the release of the Employment report. Against a consensus forecast for a loss of -363K jobs, the economy lost -467K jobs in June. The Unemployment Rate rose to 9.5% from 9.4% in May, to the highest level since 1983. The economy has lost 6.5 million jobs since the recession began, and a substantial number of people have been unemployed for more than six months. The manufacturing and constructions sectors continued to shed jobs. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose at a slim 2.7% annual rate. A high unemployment rate and slow wage growth have made consumers more cautious, causing them to save more and spend less. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity, so the slowdown in spending has had a large impact on economic growth. For MBS markets, low wage inflation and slow economic growth are favorable. Separately, Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 614K, close to expectations. The Dow is down 150 points. Factory Orders will be released at 10:00 et. MBS markets will close early at 2:00 et and will be closed tomorrow. Today's economic data further supported the view that the economy is close to a bottom, meaning that it may not move much lower. The big question, however, is how quickly the economy will grow in coming years. Most investors expect that economy to begin to show positive economic growth later this year or early in 2010, but there are widespread opinions about the future pace. Some investors predict that the economy will quickly return to average growth rates, while others believe that below average growth levels will be seen for many years. |
| 07-02-09 09:45am | 30yr 4.5 | 15yr 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FNMA (Jul) |
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Money Rates - Monthly Averages
| ARM Indices | Month ending May 29 | Month ending Apr 30 |
| 1 Month LIBOR | 0.350% | 0.450% |
| 3 month LIBOR | 0.840% | 1.120% |
| 6 month LIBOR | 1.380% | 1.660% |
| 1yr LIBOR | 1.700% | 1.940% |
| 1yr CMT | 0.500% | 0.550% |
| 1yr MTA | 1.210% | 1.340% |
| COFI | 1.380% | 1.630% |
| Other Indices | Month ending 6-30 | Month ending 5-29 |
| FNMA RNY | 5.030% | 5.110% |
Money Rates - Weekly Average Rates
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Economic Events
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Week of 06-29-09 - 07-03-09
 Market Moving Indicator |
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| Day | Date | EDT | Release | For | Actual | Consensus | Prior | Revised From | |
| Tuesday | 06/30 | 9:45am | |
Chicago PMI | June | 39.9 | 39.0 | 34.9 | |
| Tuesday | 06/30 | 10:00am | Consumer Confidence | June | 49.3 | 55.0 | 54.9 | ||
| Wednesday | 07/01 | 10:00am | Construction Spending | May | -0.9% | -0.6% | 0.8% | ||
| Wednesday | 07/01 | 10:00am | |
ISM Index | June | 44.8 | 44.9 | 42.8 | |
| Wednesday | 07/01 | 10:00am | Pending Home Sales Index | May | 0.1% | 0.0% | 6.7% | ||
| Thursday | 07/02 | 7:00am | ECB Announcement | July | no ch | no ch | no ch | ||
| Thursday | 07/02 | 8:30am | |
Nonfarm Payrolls | June | -467K | -363K | -345K | |
| Thursday | 07/02 | 8:30am | Unemployment rate | June | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | ||
| Thursday | 07/02 | 8:30am | Jobless Claims | July | 614K | 615K | 627K | ||
| Thursday | 07/02 | 10:00am | Factory Orders | May | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | ||
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