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A number of factors caused volatility in global financial markets over the past week. Comments from central bankers around the world, slower growth in China, and U.S. economic data were some of the biggest influences. Despite several large daily moves, the net effect was small, and mortgage rates ended the week with little change.
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Concerns about slower economic growth and low inflation prompted central bankers in Europe and Japan to hint this week that additional stimulus will be coming soon. On Thursday, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) said that the ECB will consider more stimulus measures at its next meeting in March. Similarly, the head of the Bank of Japan suggested on Friday that more stimulus is on the way, possibly before the end of the month. If additional stimulus is announced, its type and its magnitude will determine its impact on mortgage rates.
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Oil prices have been declining since the middle of 2014, and during this
week they reached their lowest level in over a decade. This is one major factor holding down global inflation rates.
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In the U.S., the consumer price index (CPI) data for December released on Wednesday revealed that 2015 saw the second lowest annual rate of inflation in the last 50 years with an annual increase of just 0.7%. The only year with a lower rate was 2008, and a large decline in oil prices was a big reason then as well.
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It had been anticipated that the decline in home sales seen in November would roll into the results for December, but the rebound was much larger than expected. After falling 11% in November, existing home sales jumped 15% in December. The decline in November was mostly due to closing delays caused by new federal rules, which pushed the closings into December. For all of 2015, existing home sales reached the highest level since 2006.
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Looking ahead, the next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. No change in the federal funds rate is expected, but investors will be watching to see what impact the decline in the stock market and in oil prices will have on future Fed policy. New Home Sales also will be released on Wednesday. Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales will come out on Thursday. Fourth quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic growth, will be released on Friday.
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All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.
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All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.
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